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BONDDESK® | Fed Brief


Fed Brief 03-05-2010

The Fed released its latest Beige Book survey at 2pm ET to little fanfare. The report showed that the economy continues to improve for the majority of the districts, but soft labor market conditions and tight lending practices at small to mid-size banks remain a notable drag on the recovery. Harsh winter conditions were given as a reason for weakness in some regions. The Dollar Index was at 79.90 at the time of the release and did not budge from that level as the market took a step back to review the report as the initial headlines failed to produce anything of significance. Excerpts from the report:

- Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic conditions continued to expand since the last report, although severe snowstorms in early February held back activity in several Districts. Nine Districts reported that economic activity improved, but in most cases the increases were modest. Overall conditions were described as mixed in the Atlanta and St. Louis Districts, though St. Louis noted further signs of improvement in some areas. Richmond reported that economic activity slackened or remained soft across most sectors, due importantly to especially severe February weather in that region.

- Consumer spending improved slightly in many Districts since the last survey, but severe snowstorms in early February limited activity in some Districts. The demand for services was generally positive across Districts, most notably for health-care and information technology firms.

- Manufacturing activity strengthened in most regions, particularly in the high-tech equipment, automobile, and metal industries. Residential real estate markets improved in a number of Districts, although several Districts noted that activity softened or remained weak partly due to extreme winter weather. Most Districts characterized commercial real estate and construction activity as weak or having declined further, but some Districts noted slight stabilization and a few signs of modest improvement. Loan demand remained weak, and lending standards remained tight across the country.

- Price pressures were mostly limited, with the exception of some increases in raw materials prices.

- Most Districts indicated that banks remained cautious about lending

- Harsh winter weather continued to dampen overall agricultural activity, although crop conditions were still generally favorable in most Districts

- Energy activity generally strengthened since the last survey period. Kansas City and Dallas reported increased drilling activity, especially for natural gas, and Cleveland noted increased natural gas-related investment. However, producers in the Kansas City District were concerned that a boost in supply from shale gas production could lower natural gas prices later in the year. Minneapolis reported that oil exploration expanded in February, while oil production was stable in the Atlanta and San Francisco Districts. Coal production in the Cleveland and Kansas City Districts remained below year-ago levels. Minneapolis reported brisk activity in metal mining and continued energy construction

- The pace of layoffs slowed in most Districts, but hiring plans still remained generally soft. New York cited a slowdown in layoffs at a securities firm and noted a pickup in hiring in what was still characterized as an exceptionally weak legal industry. Staffing firms in the Boston District also saw a strengthening in demand, particularly from the financial and manufacturing sectors. Several manufacturing and construction firms in the Cleveland District began recalling workers, and temporary staffing accelerated in the Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts. However, Chicago said demand for permanent workers was low, and a manufacturing contact in the Richmond District held back employment due to productivity improvements. Layoffs were also reported at several retail and manufacturing firms in the Dallas District, and Minneapolis said companies in the medical insurance and financial services industries reduced employment. Wage pressures were minimal, but Boston and Cleveland noted a lift in salary freezes and Richmond said wages rose at service and retail businesses.

 

Fed Economic Projections (central tendencies as of February 2010)
  2010 2011 2012 Long Run
Change in real GDP 2.8 to 3.5 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.5 2.5 to 2.8
Nov projection 2.5 to 3.5 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.8 2.5 to 2.8
Unemployment rate 9.5 to 9.7 8.2 to 8.5 6.6 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.2
Nov projection 9.3 to 9.7 8.2 to 8.6 6.8 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.2
PCE inflation 1.4 to 1.7 1.1 to 2.0 1.3 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0
Nov projection 1.3 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 1.9 1.7 to 2.0
Core PCE inflation 1.1 to 1.7 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 1.9 NA
Nov projection 1.0 to 1.5 1.0 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.7 NA